Can This Team Run The Bases?

Sometime during the playoffs, a coach in the Wayne County dugout expressed his frustration at what he felt were far too many cases of players getting put out on the bases. Fortunately, for enquiring minds, I do keep track of such things. As a result, we can look at how the 2008 team has done in this department compared to the other four teams to make the state tournament.

A few caveats. These 2008 stats are being compared to the end-of-the-season numbers for the other team. I don't think that will skew anything. Also, just because a player gets out on the bases, it doesn't mean it's his fault. Maybe a slowpoke in the coach's box sent him.

Three things happen to a runner: he scores, gets put out or is left on base. We're going to compare how the five state tournament teams have done in these categories.

The 2008 team has scored 49% of its runners, second only to 2002's 55%. So far so good. Now let's turn to the subject at hand: runners lost. Here we have a slight problem.

Percentage of runners lost:
2002: 6.9
2000: 7.6
2004: 9.5
2008: 10.4
2007: 10.9

This year's team is not last, and the team that is did all right for itself in Garner last season. But more to the point, what if the 2008 team lost the same percentage of runners as 2002?

The 2008 team has had 534 runners. It has lost 56, 10.4 % If the rate were the same as 2002, it would be 38. That's 18 runners, or the same number the team is averaging in one game. Wayne is scoring around half its runners, so we could say it has cost the team around nine runs. A MLB team will win one extra game for every 10 runs it scores, but Legion teams need more because the games in total feature more runs.

The bottom line? When looked at from this standpoint, Post 11 has lost at most one game due to poor base running.

In case you're wondering what happened to these runners, here is a breakdown.

11 were caught stealing straight up
6 were picked off and tried to advance
5 were picked off
14 grounded into double plays
12 were thrown out advancing on batted balls
5 lined into double plays
1 was out on a failed suicide
1 was out attempting to advance on a wild pitch.

BTW, Wayne has turned 23 double plays.

More tomorrow.